Posted by Co2sceptic on Mar 19th 2013
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In October last year I had a play about with a Solar Cycle graph from informthepundits.wordpress.com, and added an overlay to show three solar cycle periods (SC12, 13 & 14), that as far as I know are not given any "minimum" status as the period was not identified as being "COLD". No, I'm not looking for any recognition about this period, and as far as I know neither is Piers Corbyn....but hey don't let that stop anyone from calling it "The Gabriel Near Minimum":)

I have now added another overlay to the original chart and also extended it with three fictitious shaped solar cycles (SC24, 25 & 26). All of these cycles are forecast to be lower then SC 23, and SC 24 is expected to be the highest of the three, be it the lowest one for 100 years! SC 25 WILL be lower then SC 24 as per latest estimate from NASA. SC 26 Is entered as similar level to SC 25 (my guess). This should bring the period up to around 2050, as you can see from above, this WILL BE A COOL/COLD period and NOT HOT as per the Met Office and the IPCC.

See below a rare photo from the winter of 1911, near the end of solar cycle 14, it makes a very good point about the "Gabriel Near Minimum".


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Image taken from Impressive negative NAO and AO producing hemispheric cold…links to solar - IceCap.us

Abstract

The impact of the solar minimum is clear in this image, which shows the temperature difference between 1680, a year at the center of the Maunder Minimum, and 1780, a year of normal solar activity, as calculated by a general circulation model. Deep blue across eastern and central North America and northern Eurasia illustrates where the drop in temperature was the greatest. Nearly all other land areas were also cooler in 1680, as indicated by the varying shades of blue. The few regions that appear to have been warmer in 1680 are Alaska and the eastern Pacific Ocean (left), the North Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland (left of center), and north of Iceland (top center).

If energy from the Sun decreased only slightly, why did temperatures drop so severely in the Northern Hemisphere? Climate scientist Drew Shindell and colleagues at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies tackled that question by combining temperature records gleaned from tree rings, ice cores, corals, and the few measurements recorded in the historical record, with an advanced computer model of the Earth’s climate. The group first calculated the amount of energy coming from the Sun during the Maunder Minimum and entered the information into a general circulation model. The model is a mathematical representation of the way various Earth systems -ocean surface temperatures, different layers of the atmosphere, energy reflected and absorbed from land, and so forth -interact to produce the climate.

When the model started with the decreased solar energy and returned temperatures that matched the paleoclimate record, Shindell and his colleagues knew that the model was showing how the Maunder Minimum could have caused the extreme drop in temperatures. The model showed that the drop in temperature was related to ozone in the stratosphere, the layer of the atmosphere that is between 10 and 50 kilometers from the Earth’s surface. Ozone is created when high-energy ultraviolet light from the Sun interacts with oxygen. During the Maunder Minimum, the Sun emitted less strong ultraviolet light, and so less ozone formed. The decrease in ozone affected planetary waves, the giant wiggles in the jet stream that we are used to seeing on television weather reports.

The change to the planetary waves kicked the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - the balance between a permanent low-pressure system near Greenland and a permanent high-pressure system to its south - into a negative phase. When the NAO is negative, both pressure systems are relatively weak. Under these conditions, winter storms crossing the Atlantic generally head eastward toward Europe, which experiences a more severe winter. (When the NAO is positive, winter storms track farther north, making winters in Europe milder.) The model results, shown above, illustrate that the NAO was more negative on average during the Maunder Minimum, and Europe remained unusually cold. These results matched the paleoclimate record.

Note: The Maunder Minimum was followed by quiet periods in the 106 and 212 cycles shown as the Dalton Minimum and the early 1900 quiet era.

A quiet sun leads to more -NAO, more cold winter weather. We may be entering at least a Dalton like Minimum, but even if it was like the early 1900s, it could get very cold after the Atlantic follows the Pacific into its cold phase with the low solar (next minimum due around 2020).